About That "Global" Warming...
Brisbane records coldest morning in 103 years
Australia: Lowest Temperature
You'll notice the previous record was in 1994.
I know. I know. The industrial revolution just hasn't come to Australia yet. What else could it be? /sarc
Australia: Lowest Temperature
You'll notice the previous record was in 1994.
I know. I know. The industrial revolution just hasn't come to Australia yet. What else could it be? /sarc
Labels: AARRRRRRGGGHHHH, Aussies, CAGW, global warming
posted by Louise at 10:09 pm
1 Comments:
An unfunded engineer, in search of the truth, discovered that CO2 change, and therefore human activity, does not cause global warming. But this leaves the question of what actually does drive average global temperature change.
Two primary drivers of average global temperature have been identified. A simple equation using only them very accurately explains the reported up and down measurements since before 1900. The coefficient of determination, R2>0.9 (correlation coefficient = 0.95). The equation provides credible estimates back to the low temperatures of the Little Ice Age (1610).
R2 = 0.9049 considering only sunspots and ocean cycles.
R2 = 0.9061 considering sunspots, ocean cycles and CO2 change.
The tiny difference in R2, whether considering CO2 or not, demonstrates that CO2 change has no significant effect on climate.
The coefficients of determination are a measure of how accurately the calculated average global temperatures compare with measured. R2 > 0.9 is excellent.
The calculations use data since before 1900 which are official, accepted as valid and are publicly available.
Solar cycle duration or magnitude considered separately fail to correlate but their combination, expressed as the time-integral of solar cycle anomalies, gives excellent correlation. A solar cycle anomaly is the difference between the sunspot number for a year and an average sunspot number for many years.
Everything not explicitly considered (such as the 0.09 K s.d. random uncertainty in reported annual measured temperature anomalies, aerosols, CO2, other non-condensing ghg, volcanoes, ice change, etc.) must find room in the unexplained 9.51%.
The method, equation, data sources, history (hind cast to 1610) and predictions (to 2037) are provided at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com and references.
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