Reaction in Iran

Never mind Ahmadinejad and the Mad Mullahs, watch the opposition:

"Iranian opposition leader under house arrest after protests call

Son of Medhi Karroubi says family has been banned from visiting his father's house amid plans for demonstration."

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"The move came after thousands of Iranians sympathetic to the opposition green movement joined social networking websites to promote demonstrations on Monday in solidarity with protesters in Egypt and Tunisia."

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"He added: "It is the first time that the government has restricted my father this far so that even us, as close family members are also banned from visiting him, this is obviously a move aimed at intimidating the leaders of the opposition for Monday's protest."

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"Intelligence service officers also arrested Taghi Rahmani, an adviser to Mehdi Karroubi, after raiding his house.

At the same time, opposition websites reported a series of arrests of political activists and journalists as the regime struggles to prevent the news of the planned protest from spreading."

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"A pro-regime demonstration to celebrate the 32nd anniversary of the Islamic revolution will be held on Friday.

Analysts believe the fact that the opposition chose Monday to rally instead of Friday on the occasion of the anniversary of the revolution, is a clear sign that it believes the regime has been deflected from its principals."

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"Mousavi and Karroubi issued a joint statement on Tuesday in an unprecedented criticism of the regime in which they said that the Islamic republic has been most hurt by "the anti-religion and oppressive behaviour of the regime itself."

At least 27,000 internet users have so far joined a Facebook page created for Monday's protest."

Frankly, if you want an historical president for this, I have thought (since the beginning of the Iraq war, BTW) that we need to look not to any of the revolutionary movements of the past century or two, but way back to the corruption of the Catholic church and the Reformation, except that back then they didn't have Twitter and Facebook. And I think Iran is the key to its success.

There is a three way struggle taking place between modernizers, hard-core religious fanatics and nationalists. The later, for the most part, have been in power throughout most of the Middle East since the end of the colonial era, and have had their kick at the can. Perhaps the religious nutcases have, too. I look forward to Monday to see what will happen.