Views on Tunisia the Morning After

UPDATE:  Live updates at the BBC website.

Revolution arrives in Arab world

"The 23-year dictatorship of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fell to the first people power revolution of the Arab world on Friday night. Many of Tunisia's neighbours will be casting a nervous eye over their own disaffected, youthful populations.

The Middle East was a place where, in the 20th century, political change happened through war and coup.

In the 21st century things will be different. The Internet has brought people closer to their leaders. It is they who will determine their futures, not the ambitions and ideologies of their generals."

Yup. I've been thinking about what led to this historic event. It's not that there haven't been popular uprisings in Arab countries before, but none of them have led to the leader voluntarily heading into exile. I'm thinking that new technologies, utilizing the Internet, certainly contributed to this and will have dictators throughout the region shaking in their boots. I suspect the young people in Iran waving green banners will be watching closely, too, and enviously.

And Wikileaks!!

"Mr. Ben Ali may also have been the first victim of WikiLeaks. Cables by a U.S. ambassador giving colourful descriptions of the lives of luxury enjoyed by his family and the business empire it controlled were eagerly emailed around the country, despite a repressive system of censorship."

I'm not sure this is what Julian had in mind. It was more like blame the great Satan for everything on the planet.

"The Iranian revolution 30 years ago was followed by the sound of crashing dictatorships for a decade, ending in the final implosion of the Soviet Union.

I'm not sure I would describe the post Iranian revolution that way. Rather than "crashing dictatorships", it was more like changing of the management. The implosion of the Soviet Union was one of the events that allowed freedom and democracy movements to arise in those dictatorships.

Is a revolution in Tunisia similarly contagious?

"It may not be the last days of [Egypt's President Hosni] Mubarak or any other Middle Eastern strongman. But there is clearly something going on in the region," wrote Stephen Cook of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations.

Conditions in neighbours such as Egypt are rather different. They have the same economic stagnation, but also much lower educational attainment and a less developed sense of political accountability. Their state apparatuses are more oppressive. They now have to consider whether, should their turn come, they will give up so easily."

Security stepped up after leader Ben Ali flees

"Hundreds of troops are patrolling Tunis and a state of emergency is in force. Interim leader Mohammed Ghannouchi has said his priority is restoring order.

There were scenes of looting overnight in several areas, witnesses said.

Mr Ghannouchi said he would hold talks with opposition groups to try to form a unity government. (Emphasis mine)

The main thoroughfare in Tunis, Avenue Bourguiba, was blocked off by troops after the lifting of an overnight curfew.

The streets are largely deserted, AFP news agency reported."

[---]

"There have been reports of overnight looting in the city's suburbs, with French-owned supermarkets among the properties targeted.

Tunis' main train station was burnt down, AP news agency reported.

Resident Zouhair Ben Jemaa told the BBC: "We couldn't sleep all night. We hear everything - the helicopters, the gunfire. It's quiet now. There are a few people out and about, but the troubles will probably start later."

[---]

"Mr Ben Ali was only Tunisia's second president since independence from France in 1956. He was last re-elected in 2009 with 89.62% of the vote."

I think it's about time to quit blaming colonialism.

Shops sacked, train station burned in Tunisia

"Rioters burned the Tunisian capital's main train station to the ground and sacked and looted shops..."

[---]

"An Associated Press photographer saw soldiers intervening early Saturday to try to stop looters from sacking a huge supermarket in the Ariana area, 30 kilometers (20 miles) north of the capital.

A helicopter circled low over the capital, apparently acting as a spotter for fires or pillaging. Gunfire was heard crackling anew in the mid-morning.

Overnight, public television station TV7 broadcast phone calls from residents of working-class neighborhoods on the capital's outskirts, recounting attacks against their homes by knife-wielding assailants."

[---]

"The ouster followed the country's largest protests in generations and weeks of escalating unrest, sparked by one man's suicide and fueled by social media, cell phones and young people who have seen relatively little benefit from Tunisia's recent economic growth. Thousands of demonstrators from all walks of life rejected Ben Ali's promises of change and mobbed Tunis, the capital, to demand that he leave.

The government said at least 23 people have been killed in the riots, but opposition members put the death toll at more than three times that."

It's too bad revolutions are initially normally so destructive of civil society. Let's hope calm prevails soon.

People power topples strongman after weeks of violent protests over jobs and freedoms

"One opposition leader, Najib Chebbi, said change had to be made permanent.

'This is a crucial moment. There is a change of regime underway. Now it's the succession,' he told French television. 'It must lead to profound reforms, to reform the law and let the people choose.'

All told, I'm optimistic about this, although I'm not sure how widespread it's influence may be. It certainly could serve to rekindle the Green Movement in Iran, and maybe even the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon, which coincidentally, is also teetering on the brink. I'm hoping, at the very least, the era of Arab Nationalism is over. I just don't want to see Islamification sweep over the Arab and Muslim world instead. I'll be waiting to see how Iamamadjerk and the Mad Mullahs react to this, and especially, how the young tech-savvy people in Tehran and other cities respond.