Oops, Again

Assessing Future Rice Yields in China

"In the words of Yu et al. (2014), "rice is the main food staple in China" and "18.5% of the world's rice-growing area is located in this country." In addition, they say that "China contributed 28.0% of the global production of rice in 2011,"

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"Taking their own advice on the matter, Yu et al. estimated the impacts of climate change, CO2 fertilization, crop adaptation and the interactions of these three factors on Chinese rice yields via model simulations for four hypothetical scenarios. In the words of the three researchers, and according to the results of their model simulations, they found that (1) "rice yields without CO2 fertilization are predicted to decrease by 3.3% in the 2040s," that (2) "considering a constant rice-growing season (GS), the rice yields are predicted to increase by 3.2%," that (3) "when the effect of CO2 fertilization is integrated into the Agro-C model, the expected rice yields increase by 20.9%," and that (4) "when constant GS and CO2 fertilization are both integrated into the model, the predicted rice yield increases by 28.6%."" (Emphasis mine)