Sunday, November 13, 2011

My Dad...

...claimed to have seen something like this once, but he kept it to himself, for fear of being ridiculed.

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4 Comments:

Blogger Dave in Pa. said...

MAn, I REALLY get sick of the blogger.com software losing my comments. I just spent 5 minutes writing a comment, researching and inserting links ... and the damn thing just dumped it, saying sorry it couldn't log me in. I back-arrowed to go back a page and the damn thing HAD logged me in, it just felt like excreting my comment. :-(((

November 13, 2011 7:17 pm  
Blogger Dave in Pa. said...

Ever heard of Drake's Equation? The very eminent astronomer and astrophysicist Frank Drake devised a formula to guesstimate the number of other intelligent species and civilizations out there, based on 7 major factors.

While Drake's Equation doesn't even reach the initial level of Hypothesis in the Scientific Method, as it isn't testable, it's nevertheless well-thought out, intelligent scientific speculation. As such, it's intellectually provocative and therefore has a value.

Here's an explanation of Drake's Equation and here's a page where you can experiment for yourself, plugging in values for each of the 7 variables in the equation.

I plugged in what I consider realistic but conservative values and got an answer of 625 intelligent civilizations in our Milky Way Galaxy. The Milky Way is approx 100,000 light years across, averages about 1,000 light years thick and contains somewhere between 200 billion and 400 billions stars. It's a big galaxy ... in a universe of millions and millions of galaxies.

While I don't necessarily think there are or aren't other civilizations "next door" to us -a highly relative term in galactic and intergalactic distances- it's a big universe. Big being a profound understatement. I think it far more illogical to think we're alone in the universe than to think the opposite, that there are many, many other intelligent species and civilizations. The problem is the mind-boggling distances and modalities of interstellar travel. But we're not at "the end of science" any more than foolish, uninformed, unimaginative folks said at the end of the Cold War that we're at "end of history". We're still in our infancy, or maybe toddler-hood! As the late scientist Arthur C. Clarke once said, any sufficiently advanced society would appear magical to one that isn't.

To all these philosophical observations, connect.the.dots to the fact that 90+% of all the scientists and engineers who ever lived are alive and working today! I choose to be hopeful and be an optimist. Imagine what we'll know and what we can do in another 100 years!!!

November 13, 2011 7:59 pm  
Blogger Louise said...

I didn't know commenters were having a problem, too.

I'm often contemplated migrating to word press or some other blogging software, but I'm too afraid I'd lose stuff or get stuck in the process, so here I am. I does get frustrating at times.

I've contemplated quitting, too. But I guess I'm an addict. I can't seem to tear myself away. I spend waaaaay too much time in front of the little boob tube.

November 14, 2011 7:09 am  
Blogger Louise said...

"I've" not "I'm".

I'm a lousy typist, too, which lengthens the amount of time I spend sitting in front of the damned thing.

November 14, 2011 7:11 am  

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