Whose Move Now?

So, if Israel takes out Iran's nuke capability, does that mean there will be peace in the Middle East? Nah. I didn't think so either, but gosh this is an interesting statement from one of Iran's closest neighbours.

Who are they more afraid of? Iran or the little Satan?

"Mr. al-Otaiba made his comments in response to a question after a public interview session with the Atlantic magazine at the Aspen Ideas Festival here. They echo those of some Arab diplomats who have said similar things in private to their American counterparts but never this bluntly in public."

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"John R. Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said the comments reflect the views of many Arab states in the Persian Gulf region that "recognize the threat posed by a nuclear Iran.

"They also know — and worry — that the Obama administration's policies will not stop Iran," he told The Times in a separate interview.

Arab leaders, Mr. Bolton said, regard a pre-emptive strike as "the only alternative.""

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"Mr. al-Otaiba said that his country would be the last Arab country to cut a deal with Iran, if Tehran were to go nuclear. But he predicted other wealthy Arab states in the Gulf would dump their alliances with the U.S. in favor of ties with Tehran if President Obama does not stop the Islamic republic's quest to become a nuclear power.

"There are many countries in the region that if they lack assurance that the U.S. is willing to confront Iran, they will start running for cover with Iran," he said. "Small, rich, vulnerable countries do not want to stick their finger in the big boy's eye if they do not have the backing of the United States."

The ambassador also said that "talk of containment and deterrence really concerns me and makes me very nervous."

He said Iran has not been deterred from supporting terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah now, when it doesn't have a nuclear arsenal. So why, he asked rhetorically, would Iran be more cautious in its support for terrorism if it did."

It seems to me there's some signaling going on here and some mad and furious behind the scenes diplomacy as well. Diplomats from at least one county that talks to both Israel and the Arab nations are working overtime.

Interesting times.