Thursday, June 18, 2009

Iran: The Seventh Day

KEEP. GOING. IRAN!!!
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As always, watch The Spirit of Man and Azarmehr blogs, Andrew Sullivan and Huffington Post, especially Nico Pitney, for updates. niacINsight is also invaluable.

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Reading Twitter in Iran
"After all, it appears that people living under authoritarian regimes such as the one in Iran are as addicted to the Internet as the rest of us are. Even though states push back, they can't keep the Internet down for long without serious blowback from their citizens. Iranian officials have the power to shutter the Internet just as they once clamped down on reformist newspapers, but they may be more concerned now about any move that pushes those watching -- or blogging or tweeting -- from the sidelines into the throngs of protesters already in the streets. "
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Obama clueless on Iran
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Iran Makes History Again
"Historic developments are large political barns, accommodating a wide range of beasts. Iran today is profoundly important, if still imprecise in its outcome. This is uncharted territory to a great extent in the context of contemporary Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution that overthrew the Shah. It is perfectly routine behavior, though, in the wider context of human beings who do not like being treated like idiots by their own government, and resist the process when it takes place. Over and over, in lands around the world, human beings who are grossly mistreated by their own government eventually stand up and refuse to take it any more."
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"The protests are not primarily about the election results per se, but rather about the indignities that ordinary men and women feel at the hands of their own government. The Iranians who are protesting are mostly younger people who were born after the 1979 Islamic revolution, so they do not always share the reverence for the revolutionary elite that continues to dominate the centers of power in the country. Younger Iranians are the latest generation of Middle Easterners who are demanding that they be treated as citizens who have rights and as human beings who have a sense of dignity. They do not particularly care what the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, says, and so they will likely keep protesting what they believe was government heavy-handedness in announcing the results of the presidential election in a manner that treated them like simpletons and chattel. They were made to feel that they participated in a farce, and normal human beings generally do not like to be humiliated like that."
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"The levers of economic, military, ideological, bureaucratic, and police power are very tightly controlled by the existing elite in Iran, which makes the protests all the more remarkable. The potential for significant ramifications in Iran and the wider Middle East is great, given the role that Iran plays throughout the region. Of the two most significant events that impacted on the entire Middle East in the last two generations — the Arab loss in the June 1967 war and the Iranian Revolution in 1979 — the Iranian revolution has probably had wider and greater impact in the long run. Iran impacts on many parts of the region, because of its ideological influence and logistical support to Islamist movements in the Arab world, combined with its leadership of the “resistance front” of regional forces that defy and challenge the United States, Israel and conservative Arab regimes. If Iran once again sets the standard for mass political protest or even revolutionary change, the impact throughout the Middle East is likely to be enormous. Arabs will not feel comfortable seeing the Iranian people twice in 30 years fearlessly challenging their own autocratic regimes, while the people of the Arab world meekly acquiesce in equally non-democratic and top-heavy political systems that treat their own people as unthinking fools who can be perpetually abused with sham elections and other forms of exploitation."
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"The particulars of the Iranian situation these days are specific to Iran’s political culture, where a secretive ruling elite seems to suffer serious ideological rifts, and a major generation gap is also coming into play. The spontaneous mass defiance of the ruling power structure, though, is not Iran-specific. If this turns out to be a serious challenge to the very legitimacy of the Islamic Republic’s system of government, rather than a narrow protest about the presidential election, we should not be surprised to see the Iranian precedent spilling over into other, Arab, parts of the Middle East, in a way that the 1979 Islamic revolution did not."
EXACTLY!!!! KEEP. GOING. IRAN!!!

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Iran's 'Super Friday' turns to 'Super Saturday'
In the meantime, Mousavi continues to use tactics of the 1978-9 revolution. He is asking his supporters to shout Allahu akbar (God is great) from the rooftops at night. When regime television reported that these were shouts of support for Ahmadinejad, Mousavi told his supporters to add Ya Hussein, Mir Hussein, which means "Oh Hussein, Mir Hussein" (a reference to both Imam Hussein, the martyred grandson of Muhammad, and to Mousavi himself). This nighttime noise technique is important outside of Tehran where regime suppression of protests is violent and effective. There have reportedly been no protests on the streets in recent days in the northeastern city of Mashad (where riots were violently suppressed in 1992), but Mousavi's supporters are making plenty of noise at night.
Emphasis mine.
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Iranian Protest Sign Warns Regime: Do Not Forget What Happened to Saddam

Unfortunately, the President who delivered freedom to the Iraqi people is no longer in the Whitehouse.
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Yup. Technology trumps dictatorships.
"The same is true, I think, for the technologies of Web 2.0. MySpace and Facebook saw their initial success as platforms for people to connect socially online. Twitter began as side project, a novelty application for smartphone users to share their day with friends.

But now, under the press of history, these technologies are beginning to morph before our eyes. Suddenly, as you read the Facebook postings of Iranian protesters, it suddenly becomes apparent that social networks are becoming their own pseudo-nation states, complete with voluntary citizens, laws (often in conflict with their real-life counterparts) and degrees of sovereignty."

KEEP. GOING. IRAN!!!
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Cracks begin to show in the Iranian regime
"There have been reports of protesters overtaking police stations and attacking Basiji outposts, but if they march closer to government offices, forcing the regime’s leaders to flee or fill the streets with blood, what will the Revolutionary Guards do? Will they be able to hold their ranks together and massacre innocents who look like their sons and daughters for the sake of a regime that has brought nothing but misery and isolation to them?"
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"There are believable rumors on Twitter, the main battleground in the information war right now, that local police have been seen arresting violent Basiji members — and some of the militiamen even laying down their arms. Others are fearfully covering their faces so they can’t be identified."
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"Faced with such potential disobedience, the regime is looking outside of the country for support. There have been consistent reports of protesters being attacked by Arabic-speaking thugs, possibly men connected to Muqtada al-Sadr and Iran’s “Special Groups” in Iraq or foreign terrorists like Hezbollah and Hamas. “President” Ahmadinejad is said to be consulting with Russian advisors about how to handle the situation, a clear sign of insecurity in the normally self-assured tyrant."
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"Iranians are taking note of the fact that the presence of local police, Basiji militiamen, and Ansar Hezbollah thugs that attacked them when the demonstrations first began has dramatically decreased, which they are interpreting as a sign of fear. I’ve received accounts from Iranians that the local police are being seen smiling and acting friendly overall with the demonstrators, while not conversing with the Basiji militia. One report even claimed that a police station was overtaken in Tajrish after the commander ordered his men to stand down. Another account described how the army special forces acted to protect the demonstrators from the Basiji and they privately expressed their disdain for the vicious militia."
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"There may have even been an attempt to launch a coup by top security officers. Sixteen top Revolutionary Guards officers were arrested after holding secret meetings with senior army officers about betraying the regime. This occurred in the beginning of the unrest and so it is safe to say that this anti-government sentiment has increased as the crackdown has become harsher and more violent.

The regime’s political leadership is plagued with infighting as well. Michael Ledeen points out that over two dozen former prominent members of the regime are now in prison. Former presidents Khatami, Bani-Sadr, and Rafsanjani are putting severe pressure on Supreme Leader Khamenei, who is suffering from public criticism he has never had to face before. Khatami is planning his own demonstration over the weekend and the son of the shah, Reza Pahlavi, has also been sending messages to Iran advocating nationwide, peaceful resistance to overthrow the regime. It’s almost as if the democratic contest for the next leader of Iran has already begun.

The Iranians sending me news, photos, and videos, most of which have been posted at WorldThreats.com, are certain that the death toll is now in the hundreds and that tens of thousands have been injured. The crowds are growing and the uprising is now nationwide."
Obama. Where are you? Waiting......
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Obama makes another very wimpy statement in a television interview. (Wait for the commercial to pass.) The clip lasts only a few seconds. He needs to make a very strong statement from the steps of the Whitehouse in his official capacity as President of the United States.

Waiting........ Waiting.......

I think the Iranian people have stolen his thunder. It was just a little rumble whereas in Iran there is a mighty roar. His spot in the sunshine has been usurped and his bluff called and now he's miffed. Shame on you, Obama!!
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"Ghalm News reported that the sound of Mousavi supporters chanting “God is Great” echoed throughout “all districts and towns in Iran” for the seventh consecutive night"
Emphasis mine.

h/t Andrew Sullivan

Folks, this is not a mere revolt. We have a Green revolution!!!
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Tehran braces for crackdown as protesters vow to defy Khamenei
"Students at the fine arts faculty of Tehran University – where scores of students were injured and some reported killed after raids by security forces earlier this week – announced an indefinite sit-in starting tomorrow."
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"The speech underlined the sense of profound crisis, since the supreme leader usually only speaks in public at the end of Ramadan and on the anniversary of the 1979 revolution."
Emphasis mine.
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"Issa Saharkhiz, a Tehran-based pro-reformist commentator, said Khamenei's speech had transformed the crisis from a conflict over the election result into a trial of his own political authority, which was now being openly questioned. "Now the issue is that the supreme leader's sense of justice, management and competence is under question," he told Deutsche Welle. "The leadership of the country cannot be left in the hands of such a person, who for the sake of preserving himself and his own power, threatens people with mass murder.""

KEEP. GOING. IRAN!!!
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Women and the small things that really matter

h/t Ghost of a Flea
"The American humorist and political writer P.J. O’Rourke said the reason Communism collapsed was that nobody wants to wear Bulgarian shoes. He had
a point. It is the little things that matter."
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"Now they are back again: students, teachers, doctors. Intelligent women, educated women. They want to know how, in a free election, the results showed that voting patterns were the same throughout the country."
Way too much to quote in this article. Go read the whole thing yourself.

KEEP. GOING. IRAN!!!

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"No comment" is not an option
"No two situations are identical. But the reform the Iranian demonstrators seek is something that we should be supporting. In such a situation, the United States does not have a “no comment” option. Coming from America, silence is itself a comment — a comment in support of those holding power and against those protesting the status quo."
Emphasis mine.
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God is Great! Death to the dictator.
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Salim Mansur writes a great article about the contemporary world of Islam.
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Voices from Iran.
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Listen to this:



and then look at the video at Azarmehr's blog about the city of Ishafan. This is not "just" Tehran.

I am hearing this rural versus Tehran meme quite a bit lately. I don't buy it. Also note Saggezard's comments about the population data that Brzezinski quotes. Makes you want to doubt that Brzezinski has a handle on modern day Iran.

KEEP. GOING. IRAN!!!

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Google and Facebook go Farsi to help spread message from Iran
"Recognising the web’s crucial role on events in Iran, Google added a Fasri dictionary to Google Translate, its online translation service. It will enable millions of Iranians who are trying to get their message out to the wider world to translate any text, from blog posts to Twitter messages, from Farsi into English."

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US House of Representatives passes resolution in support of freedom in Iran 405 to 1. Ron Paul only idiot among them.
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Khamenei to Mousavi: Accept results or leave Iran
"Khamenei had earlier instructed Mousavi to stand beside him as he uses his prayer sermon to call for national unity, according to The London Times.

The reformist candidate did not accede to this request and his supporters have so far ignored Kahmeini's call to support Ahmadinejad, holding huge rallies in defiance of an official ban.

Khamenei's speech Friday followed a sixth day of protests by Mousavi supporters."
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"Khamenei, meanwhile, has urged the people to pursue their allegations of election fraud within the limits of the cleric-led system. Mousavi and his followers have rejected compromise and pressed their demands for a new vote, flouting the will of a man endowed with virtually limitless powers under Iran's constitution."
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Protest and utter brutality @ Anti-Mullah's website.
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Brits call Iran Ambassador
to carpet over Khamenei's "Evil UK" comment. Brown says:
"What we want is to have a good relationship with Iran in the future but that depends on Iran being able to show to the world that its elections have been conducted fairly and that there is no unfair suppression of rights or of individuals in that country."
I don't know about you, but that still sounds kind of weak to me. For my vote, Sarkozy's words still get the best marks. Perhaps that's because his father came from Hungary and he knows of brutal oppression.

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Dissolving the people.

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