Good, Bad or In Between?

Iraq bombing highlights growing role of tribes

Well obviously another bombing and 23 dead is not good news, but bombings are, as anyone who is paying attention knows, vastly diminished from what they were even a year ago, let alone two years:

"Official Iraqi figures say 5,714 people were killed in 2008 compared to 16,252 the previous year.

The non-governmental organisation Iraq Body Count also said the number of deaths was down by two-thirds, but put the figure between 8,315 and 9,028.

[---]

Over the course of 2008, Iraq Body Count says as many as 9,028 Iraqi civilians and local police died across the country. That compares to up to 25,000 deaths in 2007."

But that's not the only thing that this event speaks to:

"Tribal structures are gaining in clout in Iraq and are expected to advance in the January 31 provincial elections at the expense of the sectarian-based political parties that have divided power in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein."

Tribal loyalties can change, of course, but that is precisely what led to the great strides that took place mid-way through 2006 and throughout 2007 and to date. The "Awakening", as it was called, was essentially a movement of prominent Sunni tribes away from collaboration with al-Qaeda-in-Iraq to supporting the American effort and the fledgling Iraqi government, and that took place largely because said tribes realized al Qaeda and their cronies were killing indiscriminately, Sunni and Shiite alike. Al Qaeda did not care who they killed as long as there was slaughter. Turning Iraq into a killing field was a strategy in the larger goal of turning off the American people and eroding support for the war. When the Sunni switched sides, al Qaeda was all but finished.

But what makes this especially welcome is that they are uniting against the extremism of the religious sects in the Iraqi government:

"A greater political role for Iraqi clans and tribes could help soften the stark ethnic and sectarian divisions that have defined Iraqi politics and fueled bloodshed, tribal chiefs say.

The Qaraghouli tribesmen targeted in Friday's attack were mainly Sunni Muslims but members from the south include Shi'ites. They speak Arabic and consider themselves Arabs, but the tribe's name is of Turkmen origin and parties representing the Turkmen minority expressed solidarity after the attack."

...for now, at least, and the fact that this movement towards solidarity took place in the infamous "triangle of death" portents very well for the future. This has to be good news, at least in the short term.

You'll notice, too, that the article makes no mention of the thoroughly discredited Lancet reports which "estimated" the death toll to be magnitudes greater than either the Iraqi government or groups such as Iraq Body Count or iCasualties.